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Thread: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

  1. #21
    TYRNTLZRDKING Guest

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    BORKED

  2. #22
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Haha - the communists poured out of East Germany, turned into Greens, and now through the climate change treaty in Copenhagen are about to take over the world.


  3. #23
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Here is a blog that quotes a couple more unpublished theories that the proponents are not rushing for pier review

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/

    surprised No.

    I will try and avoid reading this thread if I can as I'm in danger of digging out notes and names of those I knew who where involved with climate modelling back in 2001. Sensible boring mathematicians who had been working on the subject for many years and happily espoused that there was enough CO2 entering the system to start it on a roll and predicted that there would be an acceleration from massive releases of CO2 as the tundra moved away from being a permafrost.

    If most of the sceptics are right, in 20-30 years we will be moving back a they can have a party and feel good about themselves. We will still have a reasonable amount of oil and a slightly cleaner and more energy efficient society. Would we have lost anything by being wrong - NO - most of the policy changes around the issue are beneficial in other ways.

    So whats the gripe!!

  4. #24
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    sorry only watched about 30% then fell of my chair

    cannot write anymore, as being a european I have to get back to subverting the idea of democracy, free speech, personal responsibility twinky bars and coca cola.

    ....Its my duty and why I moved to Norway the most socialist country in Europe.. Ops forgot also the richest, free schools and universities, good health systems with free hospitals, decent payments for the unemployed, sick and disabled.

    Its a nasty tough place but its fun to be at the new axis of evil

  5. #25
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    A lot of comments here and some misunderstandings.

    In brief
    The reason I'm no longer interested in whether we did it or not is at this point in time it is probably irelavent IT IS HERE. The merits of being "greener" stand up on there own.
    I am all for a greener world but knowing what is causing the climate change is basic to nor squandering resources in the wrong direction. I disagree with it is probably irelavent

    He has not forgotten the factors mentioned - the video is just his attem[tto simplify the issues.

    Roy wants his work to be challenged - the video is just the simple summary of the work - many years of it. I now seem to have the media taking up the issue which is all he wants. He is a blacksmith and I think meets opposition because of his non-professional status. A bit like Harrison did when the solved the longtitude problem. I am simply helping him overcome that. The media will be pitting it past 'experts' and that is great.

    Oil is a finite resource, so should not be wasted.
    Local climate change because of deforestation is much more wide spread but reversable, bringing allsorts of benifits
    Polusion, generaly stinks and is bad for our health along with the health of other organisums we share the plant with.
    All that is I agree with. I do not agree with the way climate change is being used as the new religion to control people.

    The sources he cites are but no means complete in the video. He has used the same data as everyone else (the last 40,000 years) and correlated a much more exact explanation as the main variable. Even down to small amounts of time like a few years of extreme weather over the recent past.

    It's interesting how many people are prepared to abandon theories based on scientific peer-reviewed publications for a single web page promoting a new theory without any references.
    That is unfair - a new theory that better fits the same data has been put forward for consideration and many people have never fully accepted the theory that it is all down to mankind and CO2. An open mind is needed to consider it against the other theories.

    Roy wants his work scrutinised and I simply wish to help bring that about.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  6. #26
    TYRNTLZRDKING Guest

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by 3Psuite View Post
    If most of the sceptics are right, in 20-30 years we will be moving back a they can have a party and feel good about themselves. We will still have a reasonable amount of oil and a slightly cleaner and more energy efficient society. Would we have lost anything by being wrong - NO - most of the policy changes around the issue are beneficial in other ways.

    So whats the gripe!!
    Whats the gripe?
    The Copenhagen treaty may not pass this time (I hope), but this is the ultimate goal.
    Here in the USA we have Obama pushing for Cap and Trade (climate bailout).
    It would cost us an estimated 6,700 billion dollars!
    If interested watch the first 15:25 of this video. It helps explain my point of veiw. I live in Michigan.
    BORKED

  7. #27

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Jeff, did you see Lord Monckton on Beck today?
    "Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.”

    -Albert Einstein

  8. #28
    TYRNTLZRDKING Guest

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    KGP,

    Yes I did. Thats how I learned of the video.

  9. #29
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Pretty cool.

    I am pretty sure cap and trade is going to be bad as I am not going to be one of the "haves".

    So I will be fine with the end as we know it in 2012 but is it April or December?

  10. #30
    TYRNTLZRDKING Guest

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    December 21, 2012

  11. #31

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    It's an interesting theory, and one that should be looked into further IMO.

    I've never been sold on CO2 as being the cause of temerature rise - polar ice core samples have shown that in every previous warming event, CO2 increases have FOLLOWED rises in temperature. To me, that makes it a pretty unlikely suspect as the cause.... yet we're being told it is the cause this time. On what basis?

    And the rush to reduce CO2 emmissions CAN have damaging side effects - for instance, mobile environmental disasters such as the Toyota Prius are being foisted on us as being "Green" - because they produce less CO2 per kilometer when being driven. No mention is made of the other types of environmental damage caused by the manufacture of such a car.

    IIRC, a university study in the UK actually found that over the life of the vehicle, a Prius does more environmental damage than a Range Rover.

  12. #32
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    When the climate scientists pointed out the ozone hole, and said the whole world needs to stop using CFC's and change the way we do refrigeration, the whole world jumped, we made the changes and the ozone hole is filling up again.

    When the climate scientists point to rising CO2 levels contributing to climate warming, and suggests we need to use less energy, everyone suddenly becomes an expert on climate with a theory of their own, and the Americans assume it's a one world government initiative to curtail their God-given freedom to burn as much carbon as they like in their V8 inefficiency machines.

    :

  13. #33

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by pir8ped View Post
    When the climate scientists pointed out the ozone hole, and said the whole world needs to stop using CFC's and change the way we do refrigeration, the whole world jumped, we made the changes and the ozone hole is filling up again.

    When the climate scientists point to rising CO2 levels contributing to climate warming, and suggests we need to use less energy, everyone suddenly becomes an expert on climate with a theory of their own, and the Americans assume it's a one world government initiative to curtail their God-given freedom to burn as much carbon as they like in their V8 inefficiency machines.

    :
    I have to disagree with you on a couple of points.

    First, I don't think anyone is suggesting we use burn more carbon. Most of the people I know are Americans and I don't know anyone with a V8. As you point out, they are inefficent. Also, I don't know anyone that isn't doing everything they can to be more effecient. Less than a 20 min bike ride, ride the bike. Recycle. Low wattage lights. That said, America is a much different country than the Europeen countries. Example: Europe has a much more robust cell system than the US. The reason is simply economics. We had a full wired phone system long before Europe. When cells came along it was financially sound to put in cells in Europe rather than wire. The US is slowly catching up but it is controlled by economics. The same with the carbon foot print. IT all boils down to economics. I really don't think nationality or hemisphere applies.

    Second - There are a lot of theories about global warming. The commonly accepted one is the carbon footprint of humans. That has never made a lot of sense to me. If one volcano can put out more green house gas than the whole human race in the history of the human race, how much impact is my four banger going to have. The theory at the beginning of this string proposes another theory that, I agree, is one of many. To me, it actually makes sense. However, like many other posters in this string, it does need more study and peer review. The sample time span is way to short for definitive proof but the information available to the author does seem to fit his hypothesis. This may be very American of me but I don't believe in going along with the croud just because everyone says it is the right way to go. I need to understand and believe and I have read just about everything I can find on the argument. The data presented about the carbon foot print and global warming also match but they don't take into account the external forces of nature. Doesn't the rule of Occam’s Razor say to look for the simplest solution and it will probably be right? The history of the planet has many warming and cooling cycles and humans are barely a blip on that radar. How are the rest of them explained? The economics of reducing the carbon foot print does make sense to me. Blaming global warming on it doesn't.

  14. #34
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    everyone suddenly becomes an expert on climate with a theory of their own,
    Not at all.
    Roy has done serious work and seeks no more than his work be examined. Its is wrong to simply trust the crowd.

    As recently as just over a decade ago, science told us that 100 foot waves did not exist. Mariners said they did but they were dismissed. Now after waves were measured over 44 feet in the North Sea platforms the subject was re-examined and sure enough science agrees 100 foot waves do an can exist.

    A lot of people want a more sensible use of resources and I think many aspects of the change in attitude with the green movement are great but I think others are insane. Knowing what really causes climate change - something that can explain all the past would be better than not knowing. It would enable a sensible use of resources.

    Roy has asked me to help get his work looked at and that is what I am doing. He deserves that.

    His work explains down to very small periods of a few years - no other throry I know does that as well as work on the big time scale.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  15. #35
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Last time I was in the US (8? years ago) I bought a motorhome. It had an 89 gallon tank, a V8 engine and it did 5 miles per gallon. It wasn't the only motorhome on the road, and there were an awful lot of huge pickups too. I wouldn't buy such a vehicle again, and I haven't been back since, but it's hard to believe you're all doing 70 mpg now.

    European phones: we were all wired up a very long time before they invented mobile phones. I think we may have a more robust system because America is full of holes (population-wise). We've got people everywhere!

    You suggest that the blacksmith's theory needs to be peer-reviewed. Why bother? The current theory has become accepted because of this very peer-review system, but you don't want to accept that. You must think those climate scientists must be very stupid to have not considered what you call external forces of nature. You mean volcanoes and other non-man-made sources of greenhouse gases? OF COURSE those factors have been taken into account, and you are only aware of the previous cycles of warming and because of those climate scientists. Why are you happy to accept their data on previous cycles, but then dismiss their understanding of the current situation? What qualifies you to pick and choose like that?

  16. #36
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Paul,

    You say you want to get Roy's ideas looked at. Fair enough, but if you are serious about that, why bother posting it on this forum. Just send it off to a suitable journal.

    There's a description of the process here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...ent-condition/

    John

  17. #37
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    You are making all sorts of assumptions"-
    You suggest that the blacksmith's theory needs to be peer-reviewed. Why bother?
    1. That it is wrong to challenge a theory - I repeat an theory not a proven scientific law. Yet progress is often made by challenging other theories.
    What would be wrong is to close your mind and simply accept the concenus without question and that is what you advocate. Science would not have reached the position it is in today without constant challenges.

    2. That this thread is somehow part of the publicity plan. It is not, I posted here because its a subject I was working on and simply thought others would be interested.

    3. That I swallow one theory and reject the other. I simply put a theory forward I am impressed with. I am having the theory examined by others. I want to see the outcome.
    OF COURSE those factors have been taken into account, and you are only aware of the previous cycles of warming and because of those climate scientists.
    Your blind faith that the scientists have taken all into account amazes me!

    Many theories have been overturned throughout the history of science.

    Pleaser find the research that correlates the last 40,000 years with bot the speed of change and the position of the magnetic north pole. I looked and could not find.

    I have no problem in challenging anyone and as a young engineer I did so and had 30 man years of work binned because I uncovered it had all been done on a wrong assumption.

    It was not scientists who challenged the maximum wav e height theory 0- it was mariners. The scientists would not listen to the mariners claims. That is recent and a perfect example scientists wrong - lay people right.

    You seem to be upset that a theory should even be brought forward for examination ... I am glad I do not have your blind faith.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  18. #38
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Paul,

    When I wrote

    'You suggest that the blacksmith's theory needs to be peer-reviewed. Why bother?'

    I was being ironic. Thousands of peer-reviewed research papers have been reviewed by such as the IPCC, but a large proportion of people seem to prefer their own folk wisdom. Of course we should throw this theory into the mix, and see if it presents a challenge. That is exactly what I am suggesting.

    I don't have blind faith in the man-made global warming theory. It isn't a matter of faith. I'm just not qualified to express an opinion with any higher authority than people who have been professionally studying this subject for many years. And of course the theory can be wrong. Scientists proceed by creating a hypothesis based on their observations, and then testing the hypothesis as rigorously as possible. I'd love to prove it wrong myself - I'd save mankind from such a lot of trouble and expense and probably get a Nobel prize!

    What disturbs me is how readily people are willing to dismiss scientific theory (as in, I never did think CO2 could be the culprit) when they usually have no better basis for such a notion than a wet finger in the air.

  19. #39

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by pir8ped View Post
    What disturbs me is how readily people are willing to dismiss scientific theory (as in, I never did think CO2 could be the culprit) when they usually have no better basis for such a notion than a wet finger in the air.
    In every previous warming event, the rise in CO2 levels has come AFTER the rise in temperature.

    How then, does it make sense to you to suggest those warming events were caused by CO2?

    So if all the previous warming events were caused by something other than CO2, why is it not possible this one was?

    Also, remember the same scientistific and political community telling us we are driving the planet into global warming now, were telling us we were driving the planet back into another ice-age, just 30 years ago.

    Were they right then?

  20. #40
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by tyrntlzrdking View Post
    December 21, 2012
    Thanks.

    I need to write that down. I keep forgetting it. Stupid me.

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