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Thread: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

  1. #41
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by 44C View Post
    To me, that makes it a pretty unlikely suspect as the cause.... yet we're being told it is the cause this time. On what basis?



    IIRC, a university study in the UK actually found that over the life of the vehicle, a Prius does more environmental damage than a Range Rover.
    To control you and get your money so you can be more deeply controlled.


    Over here they compared it to a Hummer - same result.

    Similar to having a solar panel on a boat.

  2. #42
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

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    In every previous warming event, the rise in CO2 levels has come AFTER the rise in temperature.
     
    How then, does it make sense to you to suggest those warming events were caused by CO2?
    Once the warming starts (for what ever reason) If I remember correctly one of biggest contributors is melting tundra/ permafrost areas which start to decompose or closer to the mark is maybe ferment. unfortunately the product is not drinkable:.

    It no good I'm starting to feel hooked and will start to get up to date again (I use to work with a group that was tasked with turning the early IPCC data into graphics that the politicians could understand.

    A possibly positive bit of advice to Roy and any helpers is to present the results in 2 formats one with lots of numbers for the scientist and one with lots of colours for the politicians & press as the later will never put the effort in to understand the first but will happily plagiarise the second if it looks good enough.

  3. #43
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by pir8ped View Post
    When the climate scientists pointed out the ozone hole, and said the whole world needs to stop using CFC's and change the way we do refrigeration, the whole world jumped, we made the changes and the ozone hole is filling up again.

    When the climate scientists point to rising CO2 levels contributing to climate warming, and suggests we need to use less energy, everyone suddenly becomes an expert on climate with a theory of their own, and the Americans assume it's a one world government initiative to curtail their God-given freedom to burn as much carbon as they like in their V8 inefficiency machines.

    :
    One of the problems with that is that if every car and truck on the planet stopped operating tomorrow. The daily amount of carbon put into the atmosphere would drop by 0.05% if I recall.

    I am not going to get deep into this thread because there is one over on Sailnet that is going on and has been for a very long time. Go there and spend a month reading it and ALL the links etc. You will be busy for a long time and realize humans really just think too much of themselves.

    Pollution and over population are different subjects.

    PS - CO2 is not a pollutant.

    ozone? Chicken feed. Now what have we done?

    Meanwhile, fixing the hole in the ozone layer may end up worsening some other environmental problems. The hydrofluorocarbons we use in place of many CFCs don't contribute to ozone depletion, but some of them have thousands of times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide. Given the projected boom in usage in the developing world—thanks to a growing appetite for refrigerators and air conditioners—these chemicals may end up being a major contributor to climate change. (Researchers estimate that HFCs could be one-fifth as problematic as carbon dioxide by the year 2050.) Earlier this month, the United States, Canada, and Mexico issued a joint proposal for a "phase down" in HFCs, which can be replaced in some applications with more eco-friendly options, like carbon dioxide, ammonia, or HFCs with lower global-warming potential. In November, the signatories of the Montreal Protocol will hold their annual meeting in Egypt, so we should hear more on this topic in the next few months.

    Thank goodness.

    Today's Ozone Hole is not the biggest, but it is very close in size to the largest on record still, so more effort should be made to curb the use of ozone depleting substances. Scientists are also looking into ways to help the process along; one team of scientists may have discovered a way to remove CFCs from the atmosphere with the help of nanotechnology! Further advances in the scientific arena will undoubtedly increase in this area as time goes on, so there's hope that future generations will still be able to enjoy a little play-time in the sun- without wearing the SPF 5000 sunblock!


    :

  4. #44
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    What disturbs me is how readily people are willing to dismiss scientific theory (as in, I never did think CO2 could be the culprit) when they usually have no better basis for such a notion than a wet finger in the air.
    A lot of scientists these day chase budgets - money for their work. Others also chase fame. its these factors that sometimes get in the way of the truth. I have witnessed all this first hand and so have a healthy scepticism for a lot of what is claimed. I fear the the climate change bandwagon is a little out of control.

    My local hardware supermarket now provides no bags of any type at checkout .... its a case of bring your own bags but the products they sell are over packaged to an extreme - a simple compact flash card comes in a large box, lots of plastic and yet is a small light item.

    I watch large turbo diesels driving small bags to the local recycling centre.
    In some place here you have to wash every tin label, bottle label etc of before you place it in the correct wheely bin which used to be one but is now five and growing. Huge growth in plastic wheelie bins, huge growth in trips to the rubbish dump. In some cases there is no market fore the recycled stuff so it used as landfill. Being politically correct is more important than being correct.

    On the other hand I am all for balanced sensible policies in these areas.

    No paper or program including the Al Gore movie has totally convinced me but i took the view that we could not afford to ignore it just because there was a chance it could be wrong. I really do think the the science is not there yet and it would be oh so wonderful if the answer came from a keen layman.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  5. #45

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by therapy View Post
    To control you and get your money so you can be more deeply controlled.


    Over here they compared it to a Hummer - same result.

    Similar to having a solar panel on a boat.
    Well, not really. Solar panels do make sense on a boat. Unless it stays in a marina, permanently connected to mains electricity.

  6. #46
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by Al Thomas View Post
    . How are the rest of them explained? [/FONT][/COLOR]The economics of reducing the carbon foot print does make sense to me. Blaming global warming on it doesn't. [/FONT][/COLOR]


    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

    Could it be sunspots?

    Here is a thought.



    ["In brief, we have the new paradigm where simulation and [computer] programs have replaced theory and observation, where government largely determines the nature of scientific activity, and where the primary role of professional societies is the lobbying of the government for special advantage."


    Ick.

    Here are just two examples that indicate the scale of the problem: the spokesman for the American Meteorological Society is a former staffer for Al Gore, and realclimate.org, probably the world's most authoritative alarmist web site, was started by a public relations firm serving environmental causes.

    None of this is necessarily sinister, but the next time you hear a scientist or scientific organisation warning of climate doom, you might want to follow the money trail. Sceptics are not the only ones who have received funding from sources sympathetic to their viewpoint. (And yes, Lindzen did once receive some money from energy companies.)

  7. #47
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by pir8ped View Post
    . Why are you happy to accept their data on previous cycles, but then dismiss their understanding of the current situation? What qualifies you to pick and choose like that?
    Because the current hype is based on MODELS. The worst case ones were waved in our faces and now, the guy that created many of them admits he distorted the data for results that the hyper's wanted to wave.

    (can't find that right now, dang)

  8. #48
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by pir8ped View Post
    Paul,

    When I wrote

    'You suggest that the blacksmith's theory needs to be peer-reviewed. Why bother?'

    I was being ironic. Thousands of peer-reviewed research papers have been reviewed by such as the IPCC, but a large proportion of people seem to prefer their own folk wisdom. Of course we should throw this theory into the mix, and see if it presents a challenge. That is exactly what I am suggesting.


    .
    http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC.htm

    double ick!

  9. #49
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by ForumAdmin View Post
    No paper or program including the Al Gore movie has totally convinced me but i took the view that we could not afford to ignore it just because there was a chance it could be wrong. I really do think the the science is not there yet and it would be oh so wonderful if the answer came from a keen layman.
    Paul,

    Al Gore's film, if I recall correctly, cannot be shown to school children (in school) without a 13 point disclamer stating that these points brought out in the film have been proven to be untrue or are outright lies.

    Have you knowledge of that? I thought Britan was one of them.

    Too lazy to look it all up right now.

  10. #50
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Here is another good one.

    Got their bases covered pretty well.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...g-warming.html

  11. #51
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    No, I hav e not heard ot that with the school kids.

    I am sure that Gore is sincere but he drove this matter and the politics led.

    Two years ago I was contacted by our local council chief ( aery small area called a Parish Council) to be told that I had been seen violating the recycling rules by dumping some furniture at the local unmanned recycling bins. I protested it was not me and was told someone had seen me (it really was not me) .... I asked to meet the person with the head of the council so that they could see who I was and ask them to withdraw their claim but that was refused ..... I think he believed me but there was no apology and that seems to be the what it is becoming ... the birth of rubbish zeoloats!! The rules that now apply to rubbish have become severe. You need a licence to even burn garden rubbish.

    Most new laws we live by here are made by undemocratic eurocrats in Brussels who we have no real control over.

    I must stop my rant now
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
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  12. #52
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by ForumAdmin View Post
    No, I hav e not heard ot that with the school kids.

    I am sure that Gore is sincere but he drove this matter and the politics led.

    Two years ago I was contacted by our local council chief ( aery small area called a Parish Council) to be told that I had been seen violating the recycling rules by dumping some furniture at the local unmanned recycling bins. I protested it was not me and was told someone had seen me (it really was not me) .... I asked to meet the person with the head of the council so that they could see who I was and ask them to withdraw their claim but that was refused ..... I think he believed me but there was no apology and that seems to be the what it is becoming ... the birth of rubbish zeoloats!! The rules that now apply to rubbish have become severe. You need a licence to even burn garden rubbish.

    Most new laws we live by here are made by undemocratic eurocrats in Brussels who we have no real control over.

    I must stop my rant now
    I believe that the globe is warming - there's too much evidence to doubt it - In England, daffodils are blooming earlier and earlier, same here in the Western US, glaciers everywhere are melting, the NW passage is so open that yachts can now transit it in summer, etc.

    However, there is also a lot of nonsense about environmental issues - claims that things are good or bad for the environment with no real quantitative analysis. Some members may have noticed my debunking powering boats with solar power and wind generators on another thread. I also debunk biodiesel and bioplastic on my website at http://biogreenproducts.biz .
    Currently concentrating on http://earthnurture.com .

  13. #53
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    For what its worth, New Zealand just had the coldest October since 1945 - apparently the average temp was something like 10 C (wish I new what formula they use to calculate average temp)
    Hennie

  14. #54
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    I do not have the expertise to speak to Roys theories, but there are a number of factual errors recurring in this thread which I can't let lie.

    1. CO2 CAN cause warming. How CO2 causes warming is well understood, and not at all controversial.
    It is of course debatable how much warming it will cause, and if other factors may cancel it out, but the basic theory is this:
    Sunlight falls on the earth, some is absorbed, and some is reflected. If you increase the amount absorbed, then the world gets hotter. A lot of the sunlight reflected off the earth is turned around (through absorbtion and re-emmission) as long wavelength infrared radiation. CO2 in the atmosphere soaks up this escaping heat and traps it in the atmosphere. This can (and has) be demonstrated simply in the lab and was the main reason warming was predicted long before it was measured (c1950's?).

    2. Volcanoes do NOT produce more CO2 than all of human history.
    Do some basic sums. Google it. Read wikipedia, or reputable reference.
    Volcanoes release around 100million tons/year average (including some pretty big ones recently), while fossil fuels every year are around 24 Billion tons/year, or several hundred times more.

    Note that I'm not telling anyone here to believe in anthropogenic climate change, just don't believe everything you hear to the contrary either.
    A lot to shit gets spouted on both sides of the climate change coin. Check facts and backgrounds. The climate is complex and I won't claim to know what's going to happen, but most misinformation circulating the web can be debunked with a basic sanity check.
    Last edited by Autodafe; 3rd November 2009 at 01:58 PM.

  15. #55
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    No matter what the 'cause' of climate change, there is an anthropogenic component, and it's the only one we can do anything about. Global warming is here, and its bad for us. A lot of people are going to starve to death or drown due to global warming. A huge percentage of the world's population lives near the sea, and who should better understand why that the members of this board?

    Increases in the world's temperature is disrupting the weather patterns we are used to, and it leads to some places being colder at some times. Average means just that - you take the temperature at many times at many places and average them. People who complain that Al Gore should shovel the snow off of their sidewalks don't seem to understand the simple concept of 'average.'

    Averaging doesn't require advanced math - just addition and division! Add the measurements together, divide by the number of measurements, and that's the average. This is the number that is going up, and cold snaps here and there don't disprove this extremely simple concept. The cold snaps are a part of the data pool, ie. are some of the measurements to be added together - they are not being ignored by people calculating the average! The averages are increasing over time -this is global warming.

    Some people say, so what, the world always fluctuates in temperature. The answer is, yes, but we live on it, and it has very real consequences for things like sea level and crop harvests that are very important to us.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

    Prevention: In my opinion, the best way to combat global warming is to use energy with more efficiency - eliminate incandescent lighting, increase the insulation of houses in temperate climates, design tropical homes and buildings with good ventilation instead of air conditioning them, building lighter, more efficient automobiles, build more efficient power plants, etc.

    So far, efforts to replace fossil fuel with biofuel have led to net increases rather than decreases in environmental negatives-a lot of green initiatives are essentially con jobs by big business interests, and biofuel is one of them. You have to do the math - a knee jerk approach won't work.

    http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp
    Last edited by BigCat; 3rd November 2009 at 05:03 PM.
    Currently concentrating on http://earthnurture.com .

  16. #56

    Default In Washington, presentation is the ONLY thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by ForumAdmin View Post
    The video was done by Roy himself.
    To do a decent job would take a month that i do not have time for.

    The music, the presentation etc is not important - its the message that is the important thing.

    If the video was going to be used in a widespread fashion then fine time could be pit into it. I admire Roy very much for the years of work that he has done. So its comments on the work that are being sought after.
    Bright man, but he must realize that a pound of presentation counts for 500 pounds of facts. Politicians often forgo facts entirely (a portion of my job is lobbying) - too confusing and they take away from the message.
    "When I was a boy, what was so was so, what was not was not. Now I am a man, things have changed a lot. Some things nearly so, some things nearly not. Is a puzzlement."

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  17. #57
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by 44C View Post
    It's an interesting theory, and one that should be looked into further IMO.

    I've never been sold on CO2 as being the cause of temerature rise - polar ice core samples have shown that in every previous warming event, CO2 increases have FOLLOWED rises in temperature. To me, that makes it a pretty unlikely suspect as the cause.... yet we're being told it is the cause this time. On what basis?

    And the rush to reduce CO2 emmissions CAN have damaging side effects - for instance, mobile environmental disasters such as the Toyota Prius are being foisted on us as being "Green" - because they produce less CO2 per kilometer when being driven. No mention is made of the other types of environmental damage caused by the manufacture of such a car.

    IIRC, a university study in the UK actually found that over the life of the vehicle, a Prius does more environmental damage than a Range Rover.

    Common sense should lead you to doubt the claim that a very light vehicle uses more energy than a very heavy one.* “This study has been completely contradicted by studies from MIT, Argonne National Labs and Carnegie Mellon’s Lifecycle Assessment Group."

    http://www.thecarconnection.com/arti...oding-the-myth :

    *After all, this is why you expect your Oram to be extraordinarily fast - It's light!
    Last edited by BigCat; 3rd November 2009 at 05:21 PM.
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  18. #58
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    I am with 3pSuite on this one. While his theory may merit some peer review (although I suspect footnotes and a bilbiography would be required before any respectable journal would publish it), I also think that it is a huge mistake to disregard the substantial body of evidence that attributes the increase in greenhouse gases (which is demonstrable) as being at least partly responsible. Yes, there are 'natural' climatic variations that can be attributed to diverse sources, including volcanic eruptions and, for all I know, changes in the magnetic pole.

    However, as 3pSuite rightly points out:

    1. like it or not, global warming is upon us (and I suggest that the impact will be greater now than ever before because of the dramatically increased population of the world and, the number of large cities built at, or near current sea levels);
    2. the reduction in plant-life is reducing the amount of carbon dioxide that is being converted to oxygen.
    3. oil is a finite resource and burning the same leads to:
    4. greenhouse gases - in particular, CO and CO2.; and
    5. other pollutants that can lead to respiratory problems in the general public.
    6. the ozone layer is being depleted.

    If one accepts the foregoing (and I suggest that it is difficult not to) and gives even some credence to the substantial body of evidence that links increased greenhouse gases to the destruction of the ozone layer and the increase in temperatures, then surely we should attempt to reduce our reliance upon burning fossil fuels. Even if one does not accept the connection, then the pollution caused by burning this finite resource and the impact upon our economies of ever increasing fuel costs (not to mention political pressure in having to purchase a required commodity from often less than friendly states) surely demands the same.

    In my opinion, those who believe that we should (or even that we can) carry on as we have to date, are being naive. We must change our habits as there is not enough fossil fuel to sustain them for much longer. The added benefits in terms of the environment (at minimum cleaner air) and in terms of the political balance, simply make the case stronger.

    Can we stop or even slow gobal warming? Perhaps. And the simple fact that this is debatable, leaves another good reason for pursuing the path to alternative energy. Will it come at a cost? Certainly. Although it is, as in most things in life, a cost that will only increase in time.

    Brad

  19. #59
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    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    There has been no talk about the cold weather that will come quickly after the warming period were in now. Another ice age for some locations like the north east with frozen great lakes and rivers and snow lots of snow. It seams like I want to order a great heating unit for our new cat.

    I participate in the reinactment of Lewis and Clark from 1806 which was close to the last mini ice age, there was no short sleeve shirts or what we use as summer clothing availiable. If you look at 1800 pirate paintings they were in BVI and wearing coats and long sleeve and long pants in most all there portrails.

  20. #60

    Default Re: Climate Change - A Rational Explanation

    Quote Originally Posted by BigCat View Post
    Common sense should lead you to doubt the claim that a very light vehicle uses more energy than a very heavy one.* “This study has been completely contradicted by studies from MIT, Argonne National Labs and Carnegie Mellon’s Lifecycle Assessment Group."

    http://www.thecarconnection.com/arti...oding-the-myth :

    *After all, this is why you expect your Oram to be extraordinarily fast - It's light!
    No doubt the Prius uses far less fuel than many cars while it is being driven. But the manufacture of the batteries for the Prius is a very environmentally "dirty" and costly exercise. And they won't last the entire life of the car. At some stage they will need to be replaced, and disposed of.

    Also, depending on how it's driven, the economy of a Prius can at times be no better than cars normally considered to be "thirsty": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKTOyiKLARk

    Interestingly, in the recent economy challenge held in Australia, Toyota decline to enter a Prius, despite apparently being offered considerable incentives to do so.

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