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Thread: Where have the hurricanes gone?

  1. #1
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    Default Where have the hurricanes gone?

    After the absurd linking of Sandy to climate change we had the climate change predictions of a heavy hurricane season but we had none of any significance .... so the models and predictions were yet again wrong.
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    Paul
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  2. #2
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Right - no hurricanes in Florida since 2005 -8 years ago. (when there were 5)--This is in line with a average that in Florida you only get a hurricane in your area every 30 years. Meanwhile many insurance companies left after 2005 and a state owned company was formed called Citizens Insurance Co. This company now has $15 billion in profits and much more in reserve.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Or it could be that climate change has made the Sahara drier, which in turn has generated more sand dust in the atmosphere. That blows west across the Atlantic and forms a haze over the ocean, thus cooling it. So fewer hurricanes form as a result

    When I first went to the Caribbean over 30 years ago Sahara dust was unheard of. 20 years ago it would reach the Canaries, later it reached the Cape Verdes. On my last Atlantic crossing, 6 years ago, we didn't get out of the dust cloud until 800 miles west of the Cape Verdes. And while we were there there were several days when the haze was nearly as bad as fog

    These days the commentators in the WI often write about the "Sahara dust". For example: From stormcarib.com, written in St Croix (I think)

    "A quiet season it has been as far as intensity goes and with a lack of Cape Verde storms developing due to stable, sinking air and our favorite culprit, that pesky dry Saharan Dust Layer, it appears, on the surface, that the season is virtually over. "


    Conspiracy theorists say man never went to the moon - and can prove it, that JFK was killed by the FBI, that smoking is good for you

    Personally I prefer to believe scientists who work in the field, and have their data checked by their peers, rather than believe journalists who have no scientific training at all.

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  4. #4
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    With respect you miss the point.
    1. The models predicted more hurricanes this season so yet again the models are wrong.

    2. Most scientists agree that you cannot link such weather events as hurricanes etc to climate change.

    3. There has been no warming now for over 15 years and some scientists are now predicting a mini ice age due to the lack of solar activity.

    So your comments are not balanced with the science.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Dr. Gray and his hurricane group have been predicting above normal hurricane activity for years without any real significant number of storms to back it up!

    That probably led to the complacency in the northeast US before Hurricanes Irene and Sandy!

    After Hurricane Sandy, New York Governor Cuomo wisely did not get into the global warming argument. He simply stated that we are experiencing a pattern of extremely severe weather, no matter what the cause, and we are going to have to prepare for it!

    The severe weather he implied, in the US, includes lack of rainfall, tornadoes, snow & ice, and torrential rainfall, depending on what part of the country you happened to be in.

    Scientists, as well as politicians, do a really good job of using statistical data to suit their position.

    The uninformed public is free to believe the scientists they choose, just as they choose their politicians.

    Pollution of our waters and overfishing are two other areas where scientists and politicians many times use data to support a particular point of view.

    As for me, I think there may be something to global warming and greenhouse gasses but, fortunately, I will be long gone before it is an issue for me.

    Unfortunately, it will be for others.

    Marshall
    "People sail for fun and no one has yet convinced me that it's more fun to go slow than it is to go fast." -- Dick Newick

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    The IPCC is a political organisation. The game is to transfer $100 billion to the third world to make up for past CO2 sins. It will not work and all the international talks will break down ... its that simple
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Paul,
    I know nothing about that group, I never referenced it, and I don't believe "paying off" third world nations will do anything meaningful to help the situation.

    I do suspect that you, lacking any credible scientific research on your own, have been swayed by scientists and/or politicians who lean in your philosophical direction.

    Many of us on this forum are the same as you, though our direction of lean may be different.

    I guess I should have been more blunt in my prior post.

    Politics and climatology tend to make this forum not much fun, so I am bailing on this thread--even if you try to bait or incite me!

    Sorry, I'd rather read about sailing and boats. That's what this forum is best for!

    Marshall
    "People sail for fun and no one has yet convinced me that it's more fun to go slow than it is to go fast." -- Dick Newick

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Marshall
    Not so. I have a Masters in Science and developed mathematical models of weather systems as far back as 1970.

    I am swayed by the evidence and the total desertion of it that has existed in this new branch of climate change.

    As an example, the famous hockey stick has now been dropped as it was shown to be total nonsense. Any data put into that little model produced a hockey stick.

    You only have to follow the existing calls from the third world for the $100 billion to see how this is playing out.

    I actually accepted the science at first but when I came to examine it in detail was horrified at the way politics has entered the science.

    I also think the entire base of the whole climate change thrust us corroding - mainly because of the way the models just do not work.

    I have always campaigned against pollution and over fishing from the age of eighteen.

    The climate has not warmed for at least 15 years - this is accepted by most climate change scientists. They can make as many excuses as they like but they models are simply wrong.

    Of course politicians will back out of all the nonsense as the true impact of their stupid policies hits home - it happening already over here. Germany has now ordered 18 coal power stations despite having spent a fortune on failed green policies.

    Australia has woken up ..... others are doing the same. The next 5 years will prove the point just as the last few years of growing evidence of the models being wrong have demonstrated the points I have been making on this forum.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  9. #9

    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    The reason there seem to be more severe storms is simply that more of the storm prone areas are becoming populated.

    50 years ago a cyclone could hit much of the tropical Queensland coast and hardly anyone would have been affected. Those cyclones wouldn't have rated a mention in the news.

    These days there isn't much of the coast south of Cairns that isn't developed, so now nearly every cyclone does damage and is therefore newsworthy.

    A similar situation would apply to the tornado belt in the USA, I'm sure.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.


    well, except extort money from us to pay for studying it.
    Tropical island life in the Devil's Triangle.
    http://2gringos.blogspot.com/

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    44C
    Agreed - its a matter of perception.
    If I started up an issue that drew attention to how much less blue the skies are now than they were in tyne past no doubt many would agree and other start to look at the issue for the first time ......

    The simple fact is that the record shows that hurricanes have not increased in power or frequency. The total amount of energy that the earth drives from the tropics to the poles is about the same over the longer term ... that is a simple fact.

    Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.
    well, except extort money from us to pay for studying it.
    Today 07:17 AM
    Be fair - we do other things like suppress the debate by calling other 'deniers' a bit like the religious heretics of the past.

    We scare children about their future so when they geo up as tax payers they are brain washed to the right amount.

    We go on and on about sea levels rising in places like the Maldives were they are not.

    We have created employment for tens of thousands in the climate change industry at the cost of losing much more employment elsewhere in the economy and now have a complete world wide industry that depends on keeping the scare going when even they accept that the climate has not warmed for over 15 years!!!!

    Mind you none of this has any effect on the weather and the world has not agreed on any plan despite the truly hot air that has been generated on the subject.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Just now on the news The UK's Disaster Emergency Committee has called for me to be done to tackle climate change because of there recent typhoon in the Philippines. So there we are no science behind this call at all and you have them scare mongering for climate change - disgusting.
    Safe Sailing
    Paul
    Blog: www.suliere.com

  13. #13

    Default Re: Where have the hurricanes gone?

    Climatologists. Another supposed "career" in which people expect to be paid from public funds, while producing absolutely NOTHING in return.
    Tropical island life in the Devil's Triangle.
    http://2gringos.blogspot.com/

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