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Thread: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

  1. #1

    Default Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    OK, I'm not huge fan of the BOM (Bureaux of Meteorology), but just lately their forecasts have been beyond pathetic. And potentially dangerous. They bear not even the slightest resemblance to reality.


    I'm wondering if maybe the "real" meteorologists are on holiday, and maybe they have a couple of students doing the forecasts? Or the cleaners maybe?

  2. #2

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    This new "meteye" site from BOM seems fairly accurate, at least for my location (Hervey Bay).

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

  3. #3

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Quote Originally Posted by ourh View Post
    This new "meteye" site from BOM seems fairly accurate, at least for my location (Hervey Bay).

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
    I have also been using www.rain-alarm.com to monitor storms. Doesn't give wind but shows local conditions that are not picked up by general weather forecasts. Available for various locations world wide.

    PC and phone apps.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    The meteye thing is OK, but I have noticed it often jumps radically at midnight.

    Seems the BOM has still got the cleaners doing the forecasts. They usually only change them completely twice a day, but lately they've even been doing a lunchtime update, which is also completely different, and usually completely wrong...

  5. #5

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Quote Originally Posted by 44C View Post
    The meteye thing is OK, but I have noticed it often jumps radically at midnight.

    Seems the BOM has still got the cleaners doing the forecasts. They usually only change them completely twice a day, but lately they've even been doing a lunchtime update, which is also completely different, and usually completely wrong...
    There is obviously more money in climate change and no accountability. A day, a week, a month, people realise you are getting it wrong. Twenty years, 100 years, nobody knows you are really just in the pub making it all up.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Looks like the cleaners are still on the job. TC Marcia was supposed to get to cat 1, MAYBE 2 before reaching the coast. It's cat 5.

    Not much difference I guess, if you're in an office hundreds of kilometres away.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Quote Originally Posted by 44C View Post
    The meteye thing is OK, but I have noticed it often jumps radically at midnight.

    Seems the BOM has still got the cleaners doing the forecasts. They usually only change them completely twice a day, but lately they've even been doing a lunchtime update, which is also completely different, and usually completely wrong...

    Noticed on the meteye - sometimes huge changes at the NSW QLD border too. Must be different models for NSW and QLD. Couple of days ago it was 30 knot northerlies from the border up, and 10 knot SE from the border down. Separated by a dead straight line right on the border. Seems unlikely this would really happen....

  8. #8

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Forecast for today - NE 15-25 knots reaching 30.

    Reality - S/SE <5 knots.

    What a joke.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Now we know why the BoM forecasts are so wrong!

    "China blamed for 'massive' cyber attack on Bureau of Meteorology computer"


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-0...rology/6993278

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Fremantle, Western Australia
    Posts
    292

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    So, does anyone have a contact in China? Maybe they have the correct weather model for us!
    L&N

  11. #11

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Been using Windyty lately and forecasts are pretty good.

    www.windyty.com

  12. #12

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    That's a pretty cool site!

  13. #13

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    So, one year later, and I can't remember the last time the BOM got a forecast right!

    With their new supercomputer they seem to be even worse, if that were possible.

    Wind strength is almost always massively overestimated. A forecast 10-15 knots will rarely see anything over 5-6 knots. Direction is rarely closer than 90 degrees off. (Never out by more than 180" though, so they can take pride in that)

    Have to use other sources for weather info now.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Fremantle, Western Australia
    Posts
    292

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    Interesting, you have the exact opposite to what they are doing on my side of the island. When they predict 20-25kn it's more like 40-50kn. Post a photo from our wind instrument from a week or so ago when it was predicted to be not over 25kn. However we were tucked away safely and not out in it fortunately.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  15. #15

    Default Re: Australian BOM, Christmas holdiays?

    I think since all the criticism they copped after the Sydney-Hobart debacle, the bOM has tended to cite the "worst" (ie strongest possible wind in a given area) case in their forecasts.

    Seems with the new supercomp, the are finding even worse cases than they did before.

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